10.2.2 Offshore Oil Spill Modeling in Alaska

Presentation Title: Assessment of Oil Spill Impacts on Polar Bears
Summary: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently completed a study to understand the potential impacts of oil spills on polar bears. We present the general framework we employed for this study to provide potential guidance for others interested in understanding potential impacts of offshore oil spills on polar bears in their regions. This includes identifying likely areas for development, developing realistic spill scenarios, simulating spills in a stochastic manner, and then overlapping spill results with various types of polar bear data. We then present results from our analysis in the Chukchi Sea, showing how much polar bear habitat and how many polar bears might be exposed to oil. We also present results on how long it could take oil to reach polar bears and the areas having the highest probability of oil exposure. Finally, we review the results in light of how they can be used to help inform spill response planning efforts.