5.1 Arctic climate: Where we are going and what it means for polar bears

Presentation Title: Arctic Climate Change and polar bears, where are we going?
Summary: Humans are in the midst of a great environmental transformation. Because climate models have been extremely accurate in predicting global temperature increases we already have observed, we can have great faith in their projections for the future. And those projections warn us we are on a path toward a global mean temperature increase of 4°C at the end of this century. At high latitudes, replacing reflective surfaces of snow and ice, with dark landscapes and ocean waters will continue to accelerate warming. Mean annual temperatures in the Arctic therefore will rise to much higher levels. In Utqiaġvik (Barrow), Alaska, for example average annual temperature is likely to rise another 9°C, above the recent average. In Churchill Manitoba, average temperature is likely to rise another 6°C above recent. These kinds of temperature increases don’t mean just a warmer climate for these locales, they mean a whole new climate. A new climate that means polar bears will be absent from many areas where they long have been part of the local ecosystem. The climate of Churchill—now often referred to as polar bear capital of the world, for example, will be similar to the current climate in the southern Manitoba town of Flin Flon. There currently are no polar bears near Flin Flon! Increasing our knowledge base and traditional conservation actions remain critical for maintaining polar bear populations in the near term—and for understanding how to manage interactions between polar bears and people in a changing world. To assure long-term persistence of polar bears, however, “on the ground” actions will be of little value if they are not accompanied by the aggressive mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions necessary to save polar bear habitat.