10.3.2 Update on the CS-SBS Boundary Analysis

Presentation Title: Polar Bear Boundaries: Updated methodology for delineating sub-populations
Summary: We present on a new method that is currently being developed to estimate the boundaries between polar bear sub-populations. The method makes significant improvements over earlier methods. In particular, it incorporates information on sea ice movement to help inform boundary delineations. It allows all location data to be incorporated into the model by actively taking into account the uncertainty of locations. The model is capable of jointly estimates boundaries between sub-populations, and presents an estimate of the uncertainty in the estimated boundary. We present preliminary results of the model for delineating the boundary between the Chukchi Sea and Southern Beaufort Sea sub-populations. We also discuss the potential applications of this model to be used in jointly estimating boundaries between >2 sub-populations, or in estimating boundaries of polar bear ecoregions.