Description

Greenland Research Report – Kristin Laidre

The presentation provides an update on polar bear research conducted in Greenland. In 2023, the Government of Greenland issued an Executive Order stating that polar bears along the east coast of Greenland should be managed as two separate subpopulations: East Greenland (EG) and Southeast Greenland (SE). Scientific work has been focused on assessing these two subpopulations. In EG, a distance-sampling aerial survey was flown that provided the first estimate of abundance for this subpopulation. During March-May 2023, 106.5 hours were flown on-effort over 26 survey days and 84 groups of bears (108 individuals) were sighted. A density surface model accounted for detectability via distance-sampling methods, modeled bear density with a Generalized Additive Model, and corrected for incomplete detection on the transect line using mark-recapture methods. The study was informed by Traditional Ecological Knowledge surveys and three decades of polar bear movement data obtained from satellite telemetry. The best estimate of abundance for the EG subpopulation, adjusted for bears located outside the sampling area, was 2,364 polar bears (CV: 0.27, 95% CI: 1,400-3,991). In 2024, a harvest risk assessment was conducted using a population model to project the EG subpopulation forward in time for 34 years, or approximately three polar bear generations. The assessment considered several scenarios for the demographic effects of sea-ice loss and different options for future scientific monitoring. Sustainability was evaluated based on management objectives and levels of risk tolerance specified by the Greenland Ministry of Fisheries and Hunting. Based on this harvest risk assessment from EG, and the 2017 assessments from Baffin Bay and Kane Basin subpopulations, the CITES Scientific Authority issued the first CITES-NDF documenting that the polar bear harvest was sustainable for all subpopulations in Greenland. In the SE subpopulation, field work for a 3-year genetic mark-recapture study was started in 2025 and will continue through 2027. The first field season resulted in the collection of 67 genetic marks from a combination of remote biopsies and physical captures. In South Greenland, interview surveys of polar bear hunters and sheep farmers were conducted in 2023 and 2024 as part of the first Indigenous knowledge study to understand interactions with polar bears in this part of Greenland. Data are currently being analyzed from 20 sheep farmers and 12 polar bear hunters. Ongoing harvest monitoring, including collection of tissue samples from the subsistence harvest in all subpopulations, is providing important supplemental information on polar bears.